Creating a decision tree

In this unit, you'll use the YDF (Yggdrasil Decision Forest) library train and interpret a decision tree.

This unit is inspired from the 🧭 YDF Getting Started tutorial.

Preliminaries

Before studying the dataset, do the following:

1. Create a new Colab notebook.
2. Install the YDF library by placing and executing the following line of code in your new Colab notebook:

   !pip install ydf -U

3. Import the following libraries:

   import ydf
   import numpy as np
   import pandas as pd

The Palmer Penguins dataset

This Colab uses the Palmer Penguins dataset, which contains size measurements for three penguin species:

• Chinstrap
• Gentoo
• Adelie

This is a classification problem—the goal is to predict the species of penguin based on data in the Palmer's Penguins dataset. Here are the penguins:

Figure 16. Three different penguin species. Image by @allisonhorst

 

The following code calls a pandas function to load the Palmer Penguins dataset into memory:

path = "https://storage.googleapis.com/download.tensorflow.org/data/palmer_penguins/penguins.csv"
dataset = pd.read_csv(path)
label = "species"

# Display the first 3 examples.
dataset.head(3)

The following table formats the first 3 examples in the Palmer Penguins dataset:

Table 3. The first 3 examples in Palmer Penguins

	species	island	bill_length_mm	bill_depth_mm	flipper_length_mm	body_mass_g	sex	year
0	Adelie	Torgersen	39.1	18.7	181.0	3750.0	male	2007
1	Adelie	Torgersen	39.5	17.4	186.0	3800.0	female	2007
2	Adelie	Torgersen	40.3	18.0	195.0	3250.0	female	2007

The full dataset contains a mix of numerical (for example, bill_depth_mm), categorical (for example, island), and missing features. Unlike neural networks, decision forests support all these feature types natively, so you don't have to do one-hot encoding, normalization, or extra is_present feature.

The following code cell splits the dataset into a training set and testing set:

# Use the ~20% of the examples as the testing set
# and the remaining ~80% of the examples as the training set.
np.random.seed(1)
is_test = np.random.rand(len(dataset)) < 0.2

train_dataset = dataset[~is_test]
test_dataset = dataset[is_test]

print("Training examples: ", len(train_dataset))
# >> Training examples: 272

print("Testing examples: ", len(test_dataset))
# >> Testing examples: 72

Training a decision trees with default hyperparameters

You can train your first decision tree with the CART (Classification and Regression Trees) learning algorithm (a.k.a. learner) without specifying any hyperparameters. That's because the ydf.CartLearner learner provides good default hyperparameter values. You will learn more about how this type of model works later in the course.

model = ydf.CartLearner(label=label).train(train_dataset)

The preceding call did not specify columns to use as input features. Therefore, every column in the training set is used. The call also did not specify the semantics (for example, numerical, categorical, text) of the input features. Therefore, feature semantics are automatically infer.

Call model.plot_tree() to display the resulting decision tree:

model.plot_tree()

In Colab, you can use the mouse to display details about specific elements such as the class distribution in each node.

Figure 17. A decision tree trained with default hyperparameters.

Colab shows that the root condition contains 243 examples. However, you might remember that the training dataset contained 272 examples. The remaining 29 examples have been reserved automatically for validation and the tree pruning.

The first condition tests the value of bill_depth_mm. Tables 4 and 5 show the likelihood of different species depending on the outcome of the first condition.

Table 4. Likelihood of different species if bill_depth_mm ≥ 42.3

Species	Likelihood
Adelie (red)	8%
Gentoo (blue)	58%
Chinstrap (green)	36%

 

Table 5. Likelihood of different species if bill_depth_mm < 42.3

Species	Likelihood
Adelie (red)	97%
Gentoo (blue)	2%
Chinstrap (green)	0%

bill_depth_mm is a numerical feature. Therefore, the value 42.3 was found using the exact splitting for binary classification with numerical features algorithm.

If bill_depth_mm ≥ 42.3 is True, further testing whether the flipper_length_mm ≥ 207.5 can almost perfectly separate the Gentoos and from the Gentoos+Adelie.

The following code provides the training and test accuracy of the model:

train_evaluation = model.evaluate(train_dataset)
print("train accuracy:", train_evaluation.accuracy)
# >> train accuracy:  0.9338

test_evaluation = model.evaluate(test_dataset)
print("test accuracy:", test_evaluation.accuracy)
# >> test accuracy:  0.9167

It is rare, but possible, that the test accuracy is higher than the training accuracy. In that case, the test set possibly differs from the training set. However, this is not the case here as the train & test was split randomly. A more likely explanation is that the test dataset is very small (only 72 examples), so the accuracy estimation is noisy.

In practice, for such a small dataset, using cross-validation would be preferable as it would compute more accurate evaluation metric values. However, in this example, we continue with a training & testing for the sake of simplicity.

Improving the model hyperparameters

The model is a single decision tree was trained with default hyperparameter values. To obtain better predictions, you can:

1. Use a more powerful learner such as a random forest or a gradient boosted trees model. Those learning algorithms will be explained in the next page.

2. Optimizer the hyperparameter using your observations and intuiting. The model improvement guide can be helpful.

3. Use hyperparameter tuning to test automatically a large number of possible hyperparameters.

Since we have not yet seen the random forest and gradient boosted trees algorithm, and since the number of examples is too small to do an automatic hyperparameter tuning, you will manually improve the model.

The decision tree shown above is small, and the leaf with 61 example contains a mix of Adelie and Chinstrap labels. Why didn't the algorithm divide this leaf further? There are two possible reasons:

• The minimum number of samples per leaf (min_examples=5 by default) may have been reached.
• The tree might have been divided and then pruned to prevent overfitting.

Reduce the minimum number of examples to 1 and see the results:

model = ydf.CartLearner(label=label, min_examples=1).train(train_dataset)
model.plot_tree()

Figure 18. A decision tree trained with min_examples=1.

 

The leaf node containing 61 examples has been further divided multiple times.

To see if further dividing the node is valuable, we evaluate the quality of this new model on the test dataset:

print(model.evaluate(test_dataset).accuracy)
# >> 0.97222

The quality of the model has increased with a test accuracy going from 0.9167 to 0.97222. This change of hyperparameter was a good idea.

Previous of a decision forests

By continuing to improve the hyperparameters, we could likely reach a perfect accuracy. However, instead of this manual process, we can train a more powerful model such as a random forest and see if it works better.

model = ydf.RandomForestLearner(label=label).train(pandas_train_dataset)
print("Test accuracy: ", model.evaluate(pandas_test_dataset).accuracy)
# >> Test accuracy: 0.986111

The accuracy of the random forest is better than our simple tree. You will learn in the next pages why.

Usage and limitation

As mentioned earlier, a single decision tree often has lower quality than modern machine learning methods like random forests, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks. However, decision trees are still useful in the following cases:

• As a simple and inexpensive baseline to evaluate more complex approaches.
• When there is a tradeoff between the model quality and interpretability.
• As a proxy for the interpretation of the decision forests model, which the course will explore later on.